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Clifford Miller
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Strong Evidence Mercury & Vaccines Cause Autism
A Population Level Rechallenge in Japan
The Honda/Rutter Japan Paper

Japanese Autism Linked to Vaccines

The Invalid Claims

The Vaccination Data Honda/Rutter Omitted

Japanese Autism Numbers Rose & Fell With Vaccinations

The Power of Rechallenge

Professor Sir Michael Rutter & The Drug Industry Connections

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Japanese Autism Linked to Vaccines

Here you will see data from formal medical peer refereed papers showing that the number of Japanese children developing autism in Japan was directly related to the number who received MMR and single measles vaccines This is proof the vaccines caused autism in Japanese children and so will do the same to children around the world. 

In 2005 a paper by two Japanese researchers, Hideo Honda and Yasuo Shimizu, was published
in an English psychiatric journal with psychiatrist Professor Sir Michael Rutter also named as an author.  The paper was claimed to be proof MMR vaccine could not cause autistic spectrum disorders.  But the authors failed to provide the full picture.  They made invalid claims.  Those claims were based on inadequate research containing basic flaws.

The Honda/Rutter paper is:-
"No effect of MMR withdrawal on the incidence of autism: a total population study." Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry (2005).

When the flaws are identified and corrected, the paper provides what seems unusually strong proof, not normally seen, implicating vaccines as a cause of Autistic Spectrum Disorders (ASD).  The paper, when corrected with the missing data, shows ASD numbers increased and decreased in direct proportion to the total number of measles and MMR vaccines given to children.

We see here not just evidence of dechallenges and rechallenges on a population level but a "dose-response" relationship.  This is conclusive evidence of a causal association.
A dose-response relationship on a population level is rare if not unprecedented because the kind of close numerical correspondence seen here is not usually found. 

The Honda/Rutter paper when corrected provides strong proof implicating MMR and single measles vaccines as a cause of ASD.  It also implicates rubella and JE (Japanese Encephalitis) vaccine containing the vaccine ingredient and known toxic mercury containing neurotoxin, thiomersal (a.k.a. thimerosal). 

That the practice in Japan was to give the measles and rubella vaccines at the same time was the boast of The British Department of Health.  That was to bolster official claims that whistle blower medical doctor Andrew Wakefield's concerns about the MMR vaccine were wrong.  The Honda/Rutter paper was announced in the usual blaze of publicity.  And as usual, the truth has not been.
  At the very least what no one can argue validly with is that scientifically the Honda/Rutter paper is deeply flawed.

Professor Rutter has many close associations with the drug industry and particularly with GlaxoSmithKline, having been a paid expert witness on their behalf in the UK MMR vaccine damage litigation.  That was not declared in the Honda/Rutter paper nor were any other potential conflicts of interest or statements of funding (about which see more below).  Professor Rutter is also one of the main prosecution witnesses in the witchhunt in the British General Medical Council against medical doctors Andrew Wakefield, Simon Murch and Professor Walker-Smith.

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The Invalid Claims

The Honda/Rutter paper claimed that new cases of autism in Japan fell for children born in 1991-92 (as the confidence of Japanese parents fell in the dangerous Japanese MMR vaccine withdrawn on safety grounds in 1992) but then rose sharply again and especially for children who were born in 1993-94.  Here is the graph from the Honda/Rutter paper:-

The authors summarised their results (my emphasis):-

"The MMR vaccination rate in the city of Yokohama declined significantly in the birth cohorts of years 1988 through 1992, and not a single vaccination was administered in 1993 or thereafter.  In contrast, cumulative incidence of ASD up to age seven increased significantly in the birth cohorts of years 1988 through 1996 and most notably rose dramatically beginning with the birth cohort of 1993."

The authors wrongly claimed this meant it was unlikely MMR vaccine caused autism spectrum disorders.  The authors failed to do what any scientist would have done.  They failed to ask themselves "why?"

Why did autism rapidly increase for children born in 1993-94 and thereafter?  As can be seen from the above Honda/Rutter graph in 93-94 and after the autism rate was double that in the period up to 1992 when the MMR vaccine was withdrawn.  The authors were duty bound to consider this before going into print.  This is particularly notable because their data shows they were clearly on notice that withdrawing the dangerous Japanese MMR vaccine was associated with a marked drop in new cases of autism.  Anyone can see that from their graphs.  Autism cases fell for those born in 1991-92 as uptake of the Japanese MMR vaccine fell and was withdrawn in 1992.

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The Vaccination Data Honda/Rutter Omitted

In Japan when MMR was introduced, single measles vaccine was still being used side-by-side with MMR.  Professor Rutter and his colleagues failed to take that into account.

They also failed to
look to two peer refereed papers published only three years earlier in 2002 which provide some of the missing data:-
The Nakatani and Terada papers provide a more complete picture.  The Terada paper sets out the annual Japanese vaccination data for the annual numbers of vaccinations for  measles and MMR vaccines combined in Kurashiki City, Japan.  The Nakatani paper sets out the Japanese vaccination data, including for measles, rubella and the mercury containing Japanese Encephalitis vaccine.

Grateful thanks for generously making his library facilities available pro bono publico without condition or hesitation, and especially so for enabling the key Terada paper to be located are due to Professor Jeff Bradstreet MD, MD(H) FAAFP, Adjunct Professor of Pediatrics, Southwest College of Naturopathic Medicine, International Child Development Research Centre, Melbourne, FL 32934, USA.  It is certain some children and their families will be saved from a lifetime of autism as a result as soon as the information here becomes more widely available.

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Japanese Autism Numbers Rose & Fell With Vaccinations

When Honda/Rutter is compared to Terada it can be seen that
ASD numbers appear to have been directly proportional to the total number of measles and MMR vaccines given in any year In other words, the number of Japanese children who developed autism was directly related to the number who received MMR and single measles vaccines.  Here is a combined graph showing this:-

This is what is called a dose-response relationship - the extent of the effect of a drug is related to the amount of the drug administered.  Unusually, here we see a dose-response relationship in a large sample of the population of Japan, and as such, this appears to be conclusive evidence of a causal association between the MMR and measles vaccines and Autistic Spectrum Disorders in children. 

Here is the data from the Terada and Honda/Rutter papers shown separately in the graphs, from the original papers as published:-

Terada Paper: Fig. 4 Numbers of measles vaccinations and births in Kurashiki City from 1980 to 2000 Honda/Rutter Fig. 1:  Numbers of ASD diagnoses in children up to 7 years of age by year of birth
Fig. 4 Numbers of measles vaccinations and births in Kurashiki City from 1980 to 2000
Red Line joins tops of bars.  It shows the total of MMR and Measles vaccinations each year in Kurashiki City from 1980 to 2000.

These graphs compare data for children born in two different areas: Kurashiki City with Kohoku Ward, Yokohama.  Despite this, the correspondence is remarkable. 

Note in particular that when you compare the graph on the right, remember that the children would not have been vaccinated until they were 15-18 months old.  So you compare the ASD rates with the vaccination rates approximately two years later.  The graph on the right is 15-18 months "ahead" of the graph on the left.

Further, the Nakatani paper indicates this similarity in the data is unlikely to be coincidence.  The Nakatani paper shows the national vaccination rates in Japan. These are closely similar in profile to that shown for Kurashiki City.  It is also reasonable to expect that the national vaccination rates would be similar for Kohoku Ward (data in the Honda/Rutter paper).

The  Nakatani  paper also implicates rubella vaccine and the thiomersal/thimerosal mercury containing JE (Japanese Encephalitis) vaccines. 

That paper showed that in 1995 there was a sharp rise (150%) in single measles and single rubella vaccinations.  Many of the children getting those vaccines in 1995 would have been those born in 1993-4. This rise was also coupled with a doubling in Japanese Encephalitis vaccinations (200%) between 1993 and 1995.  Japanese Encephalitis vaccine was given in three separate vaccinations and each one contained the poisonous mercury  based neurotoxin thiomersal.  So JE vaccine is just like DTP given to children in the USA and UK up until very recently in that it contained that neurotoxin and was given in three jabs to infants or toddlers. 

Here is the graph from the earlier paper showing the increases in single measles, rubella and JE vaccine vaccination rates by 1995 in Japan - I have added the vertical blue line and ringed the legend to pick out the measles, rubella and JE vaccine lines of the graph:-

And after the 150% increase in measles and rubella vaccinations and the doubling in the JE vaccine uptake, the graph shows that autism incidence doubled.  Incidence rose from 60 in 10,000 (1991-92 births) to 120 in 10,000 (1995-96 births).  The same applies to the peaks in the graph in 1990 and 1994.  The 1990 peak was 80 in 10,000 and the 1994 peak was double that at 160 in 10,000.

I am grateful to Dr F E Yazbak of Boston Massachusetts, USA for first drawing my attention to this paper and so assisting to identify this population level rechallenge proof of autism causation of the MMR vaccine.

This shows that not only did the authors of the Honda/Rutter paper have before them evidence of a "population level" dechallenge, they also had evidence of a "population level" rechallenge.  Had they carried out their researches properly, they would also have had the evidence of the Nakatani and Terada papers to show the even more powerful evidence of a dose-response relationship on a population level.
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The Power of Rechallenge

Just one well documented spontaneous report of a rechallenge is sufficient to prove a drug causes a harmful adverse drug reaction. Only three well documented cases of dechallenge are sufficient proof.  But in Japanese Autism Numbers Rose & Fell With Vaccinations we see these numerous dechallenges and rechallenges combining into a continuous dose-response relationship on a population level.  This is very unsual to see and powerful proof of a causal association.

"Dechallenge" is a fancy word for withdrawing administration of a drug from a person after they have been taking it.  If adverse symptoms suffered by the person diminish with withdrawal of the drug, that is evidence the reaction is caused by the drug.  "Rechallenge" is another fancy word for where the same drug is reintroduced and the adverse reactions start again.  This is standard well-known and well-accepted pharmacological science. 

 "Spontaneous" means you do not have to carry out a drug trial.  If it happens to an ordinary patient at any time anywhere but is well documented, that can be sufficient proof. 

Here, we see the Honda/Rutter paper in conjunction with the Nakatani paper providing us with a large number of examples of dechallenges and rechallenges.  This is not in a few individuals but in a sample of the entire population of Japan.  And the dechallenges and rechallenges are well documented in published peer refereed papers.  But what the Terada paper also shows us is that in this sample Japanese population (hence the term "population level") the dechallenges and rechallenges combine to show us a population level dose-response relationship.  That means we see the adverse effects increasing and decreasing in proportion to the quantity of the pharmaceutical (here MMR and measles vaccines) administered to the sample population. That is powerful as proof of a causal association between the vaccines and autistic spectrum disorders.

You can read further about the power of dechallenge and rechallenge evidence in this peer refereed medico-legal paper by Dr Donald Miller (no relation), professor of surgery at the University of Washington and me and published in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons:-
On Evidence, Medical and Legal
Additionally, the Honda/Rutter graph shows that autism incidence was rising over the entire period from 1988 to 1996.  The authors did not show the figures for the period prior to 1988.  However, as the trend on the graph is climbing after 1987, that suggests prior to that time autism incidence was lower.  Thus this is more evidence to confirm the world autism pandemic, and which is other evidence the Honda/Rutter authors had  before them which they did not deal with.
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Professor Sir Michael Rutter & The Drug Industry Connections

It is appropriate to ask:
It can help to follow the money chain.  In the money connections, you don't get any bigger than Rutter.

Psychiatrist Professor Sir Michael Rutter is a former (recent) Deputy Chairman of the immensely wealthy Wellcome Trust (founded by the Wellcome Foundation which is now Glaxo).  For confirmation of his status, see the 4th page of :-
Wellcome Trust Limited Annual Report and Financial Statements 2003

The Wellcome Trust has assets of over 14 billion:-
Wellcome Trust Limited Annual Report and Financial Statements 2007

The Trust hands out millions every year and has far more substantial reserves to enable it to do that.  And it can dictate a great deal of what research is carried out around the world.  See here for details:-
Wellcome Trust Funding

So Rutter is very influential.  You do not get to be in that position if you are not "in favour with pharma".

He is also one of the expert witnesses for Glaxo in the MMR litigation (something he did not declare, for example, in the Honda/Rutter paper denying MMR has any association with autism, but I do not see him before the GMC over that). 
Professor Rutter is also one of the main prosecution witnesses in the witchhunt in the British General Medical Council against medical doctors Andrew Wakefield, Simon Murch and Professor Walker-Smith.

Here is a biographical note on Professor Sir Michael Rutter from the Academy of Medical Sciences which says:-
Professor Sir Michael Rutter is Professor of Developmental Psychopathology at the Institute of Psychiatry, Kings College, London.   He has been a consultant psychiatrist at the Maudsley Hospital since 1966, and was Professor of Child Psychiatry at the Institute of Psychiatry from 1973 to 1998.   He set up the Medical Research Council Child Psychiatry Research Unit in 1984 and the Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre 10 years later, being honorary director of both until October 1998.   His research has included the genetics of autism; the study of both school and family influences on children’s behaviour; the links between mental disorders in childhood and adult life; epidemiological approaches to test causal hypotheses; and gene-environment interplay.  He was Deputy Chairman of the Wellcome Trust from 1999 to 2004, and has been a Trustee of the Nuffield Foundation since 1992.  He was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1987 and an honorary member of the British Academy in 2002.  He was a Founding Fellow of the Academia Europaea and the Academy of Medical Sciences, of which he is currently Clinical Vice-President. He has received numerous international honours and has published some 40 books and over 400 scientific papers and chapters.

Professor Sir Michael Rutter along with a troupe of psychiatrists now or formerly associated with The Maudsley Hospital and The Institute of Psychiatry at Kings have been working hard at telling the public autism is solely genetic and denying there is a world autism pandemic

If a condition is genetic, you also do not suddenly get spontaneous mutation of large numbers of individuals.  That suggestion is counter logical and non science.  Genetics cannot account for the large rise we are seeing in autism since the mid 1980s.  So instead what we see are efforts by Rutter and the King's Institute of Psychiatry other autism denialists to claim there is no real rise in the prevalence of autism.  This claim is unscientific and runs counter to the facts documented in the formal literature.  You can see I have already made this crystal clear to autism denialist and another psychiatrist, Professor Bennett Leventhal:-
World Autism Pandemic
Clifford G Miller - April 2008
The Institute of Psychiatry has been an embarrassing place to be because of this April 2008 news item:-
BBC psychiatrist Tonmoy Sharma is struck off
By Lucy Cockcroft The Telegraph  01 April /2008

A psychiatrist who regularly appeared as an expert on the BBC has been struck off the medical register after he lied about his academic qualifications and performed unethical drugs tests on mentally ill patients.
The Institute of Psychiatry has or is home to more than its fair share of doctors (psychiatrists mostly) who publish papers claiming autism is genetic and denying there is an autism epidemic (the correct word is pandemic - epidemics have far fewer victims).  These doctors include Rutter, Eric Fombonne (now expert witness in the US in the thiomersal/autism litigation when he had previously published nothing about it), Simon Baron Cohen.  It is also home to controversial "Gulf War Syndrome" psychiatrist Simon Wessley, director of the Centre for Military Health Research at King's College London and who had been claiming ME/CFS is not a physical condition but a mental one contrary to the definition used around the world.  Sophia Wilson is an example of an ME/CFS sufferer who died following this approach to diagnosis, albeit not so far as I am aware a patient of any of the psychiatrists or institutions I name here.

Also associated with The Institute of Psychiatry and the Maudsley is Dr Ben Goldacre, who constantly attacks alternative medicine in The Guardian whilst writing the "Badscience" column - yet Goldacre has no scientific qualifications and does not tell everyone that he practises psychiatry - the least successful branch of medicine in history and which has difficulty finding two reliable pieces of science to rub together to support the wacky quacky theories some of its proponents put out. 

Goldacre works with Wessley. Goldacre and Wessley have close professional and personal connections to King's Mobile Phones Research Unit. That is interesting bearing in mind Goldacre's very public attacks, backed by the industry funded lobby group, The Science Media Centre, on Panorama's documentary about mobile phone hazards, which hazards were raised by no less than the head of the Health Protection Agency.  That did not stop Ben Goldacre and The Science Media Centre attacking the programme and its journalists.

Rutter is also a friend of the editor of the journal which printed the Honda/Rutter MMR paper.  Here is his endorsement of the Journal:-
""JCPP is clearly the world's No. 1 child psychology and psychiatry journal.  It integrates clinical and developmental perspectives, it is truly international, and interdisciplinary, and it combines high scientific standards with attention to clinical relevance."
Prof. Sir Michael Rutter"
Editor Charman is a contributor to Rutter's book:-
"Rutter's Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Fifth Edition"
Rutter was also an expert witness in Malmo, Sweden in an MMR autism case where the key question was whether autism was solely genetic and not environmental.  Rutter's expert evidence was that it was genetic.

And this could go on and on and on ......................

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