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Smallpox Alert!

Repeated influenza vaccination of healthy children and adults:
borrow now, pay later?

Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Feb;134(1):63-70.
Repeated influenza vaccination of healthy children and adults: borrow now, pay later?

Carrat F,  |   Lavenu A,   |   Cauchemez S,  |   Deleger S
Epidemiology and Information Sciences, U707, Institut national de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale, Paris, FranceGroupe Hospitalier - Universitaire Est, Paris, France.

A growing number of publications are recommending annual influenza vaccination of healthy children and adults. However, the long-term consequences of repeated influenza vaccination are unknown.

We used a simple model of recurrent influenza infection to assess the likely impact of various repeated influenza vaccination scenarios. The model was based on a Markovian framework and was fitted on annual incidence rates of influenza infection by age. We found that natural influenza infection reduced the risk of being re-infected by 15.4% (95% confidence interval 7.1-23.0).

Various scenarios of repeated influenza vaccination were then simulated and compared with a reference scenario where vaccination is given from age 65 years onwards.
We show that repeated vaccination at a young age substantially increases the risk of influenza in older age,
by a factor ranging between 1.2 (vaccination after 50 years)
to 2.4 (vaccination from birth)

These findings have important implications for influenza vaccination policies. PMID: 16409652 [PubMed - in process]


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